Dutch Gambling authority expects billions in sales

Dutch gaming authority is also striving for the highest possible channelization. This means that as high a proportion of the players as possible falls back on licensed and thus legal gambling offers. In order to achieve this goal, the legal offer must be as attractive as possible. In a current report, the Dutch gaming authority KSA is now publishing its sales forecasts for the coming years.

Dutch online gaming market: a billion euros turnover in 2024?

In its report, the Dutch authority refers to data from two market research companies. They tried to make a sales forecast for the Dutch online gambling market. As a result, the experts at H2 Capital expect total income of EUR 1.08 billion for 2024. This could, for the first time, reach the magic mark of one billion euros in sales on the Dutch online gaming market.

The forecast of the market research company Regulus Partners is somewhat more cautious. Here the analysts assume that sales in 2024 will amount to around 827 million euros. When evaluating this forecast, it is important to note that both companies have taken into account the non-licensed providers. It is therefore a sales forecast for the licensed and for the non-licensed market. The so-called channeling, i.e. the percentage of players who will play on licensed platforms, is therefore of particular interest.

The Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) is the official gaming authority of the Netherlands. One of the tasks of the authority is to regulate the gaming market by issuing licenses. In addition, the promotion of addiction prevention and risk-based supervision are among the core tasks of the organization. The seat is in The Hague.

Illegal providers should be displaced

Like other regulatory authorities, the Dutch KSA has been fighting for years against illegal online providers who provide their services without a license. For this reason, it is not surprising that the displacement of illegal providers was a primary goal in the design of gambling regulation in the Netherlands. The KSA would like 80% channeling. So four out of five players should play on legal platforms.

According to current sales forecasts, however, this ambitious target may be difficult to achieve. According to the analysts at H2 Capital, sales on the legal market are likely to be “only” around 757 million euros, which leaves a considerable remaining amount of more than 250 million euros, which would consequently be earned on the black market. This proportion would in turn mean that only 70% canalization would be achieved. This would mean that far too many Dutch users would still be on unlicensed platforms.

Does high taxation endanger canalization?

Only a few days ago we reported on the criticism of the “online gambling tax” in Germany. In this country there was a proposal a few weeks ago to introduce a so-called gaming stake tax of 8%. However, it is customary to tax the gross gaming revenue. It is currently feared that such a tax could endanger the channeling into the legal market, since the legal offer would then no longer be attractive enough.

There are now similar fears in the Netherlands. In the future, a tax of 29% will be levied on gross gaming revenues. That is significantly more than in other EU countries. Accordingly, more Dutch players could switch to non-licensed offers in the future.

Conclusion

The Dutch gambling authority is optimistic about the future of the national online gambling market. According to the market research company H2 Capital, gaming sales in the online sector could exceed one billion euros for the first time in 2024. However, the decision-makers are currently concerned about channeling, which could lead to missing the goal they have set themselves. The KSA is actually aiming for 80% channeling. According to current forecasts, however, significantly fewer players could use the legal offer in the future than aimed at. As in Germany, this could be due to the planned higher taxation on online gambling stakes. It will therefore be interesting to see how the channeling will develop in the coming months and years.